Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
