An Forecasting Platform Trader Made $Nearly Half a Million on Bets on Maduro's Downfall.

A bettor made nearly half a million dollars from wagers on the downfall of Venezuela's president immediately preceding it was made public, leading to inquiries about potential gains made from non-public details of the US operation.

Changing Odds in Forecasts

Bets placed on the crypto-platform, an online prediction market, that the Venezuelan president would be removed from office by the close of the month rose in the hours before President Donald Trump declared on the weekend that Maduro had been apprehended.

A single trader, which became a member recently and placed four wagers, all on political events in Venezuela, made more than $nearly half a million from a modest bet of over $32,000.

Who placed the bet is a mystery. The user had only a cryptographic address for identification.

Odds Fluctuate Before News Break

Trading information shows that users estimated the likelihood of the president's removal at just 6.5% in the afternoon of Friday, January 2nd.

However the odds had increased to over 10% by late Friday night and surged in the first hours of Saturday, pointing to a rapid movement in market sentiment just before the social media post was made.

"This specific wager has all the hallmarks of a trade based on confidential knowledge," said Dennis Kelleher.

Several of other traders also made tens of thousands of dollars from similar wagers.

Regulatory Scrutiny Grows

Some lawmakers are beginning to pay attention.

A new rule presented on Monday would prevent government employees from participating on prediction markets if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a bet.

Market Background

Prediction markets have grown significantly in recent years, with traders able to wager on everything from sports to current affairs.

This sector faced scrutiny under the previous administration. However it has found a more favorable environment during the current presidency.

Insider trading is illegal in the stock market, but there are more ambiguous rules in the forecasting space.

A spokesperson for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits trading on insider information of any form."