Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
